StratMap Picks: Melbourne Metro: Top 5 Markets (2026 Q3 draft preview)

Draft picks awaiting James Thompson's review. Not published guidance. The ranking below is a machine pass over the evidence. James reviews, reorders, and writes the strategist view before an edition is published.

How to read this report. Each market card opens with its four headline numbers, then six score bars showing where it is strong and where it is not. The suburb table underneath is where you shortlist: every suburb links to its own report or preview, and every number states its source and period. Read one card or all of them; the ranking is the same disclosed math either way.

Every buy band on one line

Each bar is that market's middle-half price band. Click a bar to jump to its card.

#1Casey

#2Hume

#3Melton

#4Brimbank

#5Frankston

$625k$940k

How these were picked: the six questions and the scoring

Each market is scored on six questions. Every question is a number from the report grid; every value on this page carries its source and period underneath it.

How many suburbs a working budget reaches. We count ladder suburbs with a house median at or under $900,000, the budget band most of our clients buy in.
What yield the buy band pays. The median gross house yield across the middle of each ladder (the P25 to P75 price slice).
Whether the run has already happened. A low 5 year average with positive 1 year momentum scores higher than a big 5 year number that is already banked.
How tight rentals are. The median house vacancy rate across the ladder.
The shape of the local economy. Gross regional product and the unemployment rate.
How deep the market is. Suburb count and 12 month house sales volume.

Each question is scaled 0 to 1 across the 36-LGA corpus and the six scores are averaged with equal weight. The rank is that average, highest first. The profitable-sales figure is shown where captured but not scored, because only 8 of the 36 markets carry it.

This edition draws from the 17 tracked Melbourne metro LGAs.

Casey

VIC

six question
score / 10

$720,000 to $865,000

buy band

3.9%

yield in band

1.4%

vacancy

6,734

sales 12m

Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to April 2026

Budget fit5.5

Yield4.3

Timing5.9

Rentals7.7

Economy5.2

Depth6.9

The six questions, scored 0 to 10 against every tracked market. Longer bar = stronger on that question.

See the evidence behind each score

In-budget depth	Yield at band	Has the run happened	Vacancy	LGA economy	Market depth
16 of 20 suburbs at or under $900,000 Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to April 2026	3.9% median in-band house yield Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to April 2026	1yr median 6% 5yr average 5% Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to April 2026	1.4% median 18 suburbs with data Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to April 2026	GRP $14.75B unemployment not captured profitable sales: not captured for this LGA Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to April 2026	20 suburbs 6,734 house sales, 12 months Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to April 2026

In-band suburbs (inside the buy band above). Suburbs with a full report link through.

In-band suburb	Median	Yield	Vacancy	Rent pw	Rent 12m
Cranbourne West	$722,500	4.1%	1.5%	$580	2%
Cranbourne East	$745,000	4%	1.1%	$590	2%
Cranbourne North	$770,000	3.9%	1.4%	$590	2%
Cranbourne South	$810,000	3.6%	1.9%	$635	3%
Narre Warren South	$860,000	3.8%	1%	$620	3%

DRAFT for James: 16 of 20 ladder suburbs sit at or under $900,000, in-band yield 3.9%, 1yr growth median 6% against a 5yr average of 5%, vacancy median 1.4%.

Open the Casey LGA report

Hume

VIC

six question
score / 10

$670,000 to $780,000

buy band

4.1%

yield in band

2.3%

vacancy

5,519

sales 12m

Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026

Budget fit5.2

Yield5.1

Timing6.8

Rentals5.5

Economy4.6

Depth6.1

The six questions, scored 0 to 10 against every tracked market. Longer bar = stronger on that question.

See the evidence behind each score

In-budget depth	Yield at band	Has the run happened	Vacancy	LGA economy	Market depth
15 of 15 suburbs at or under $900,000 Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026	4.1% median in-band house yield Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026	1yr median 9% 5yr average 4% Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026	2.3% median 15 suburbs with data Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026	GRP $23.81B unemployment 6.4% profitable sales: 97.5% Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026	15 suburbs 5,519 house sales, 12 months Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026

In-band suburbs (inside the buy band above). Suburbs with a full report link through.

In-band suburb	Median	Yield	Vacancy	Rent pw	Rent 12m
Meadow Heights	$681,000	4.1%	2.4%	$522	4%
Mickleham	$705,000	4.1%	3.8%	$530	-4%
Craigieburn	$710,000	4.1%	2.3%	$550	0%
Sunbury	$722,000	3.9%	3.3%	$550	3%
Westmeadows	$744,500	4.1%	2.8%	$550	0%

DRAFT for James: 15 of 15 ladder suburbs sit at or under $900,000, in-band yield 4.1%, 1yr growth median 9% against a 5yr average of 4%, vacancy median 2.3%.

Open the Hume LGA report

Melton

VIC

six question
score / 10

$625,000 to $725,000

buy band

yield in band

3.05%

vacancy

5,846

sales 12m

Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to July 2026

Budget fit7.9

Yield4.7

Timing5.9

Rentals3.8

Economy3.6

Depth7.1

The six questions, scored 0 to 10 against every tracked market. Longer bar = stronger on that question.

See the evidence behind each score

In-budget depth	Yield at band	Has the run happened	Vacancy	LGA economy	Market depth
23 of 24 suburbs at or under $900,000 Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to July 2026	4% median in-band house yield Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to July 2026	1yr median 5% 5yr average 4% Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to July 2026	3.05% median 20 suburbs with data Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to July 2026	GRP $9.41B unemployment 6.3% profitable sales: 97.8% Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to July 2026	24 suburbs 5,846 house sales, 12 months Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to July 2026

In-band suburbs (inside the buy band above). Suburbs with a full report link through.

In-band suburb	Median	Yield	Vacancy	Rent pw	Rent 12m
Thornhill Park	$629,500	4.2%	4.4%	$450	0%
Strathtulloh	$635,000	3.9%	3.8%	$470	-1%
Eynesbury	$670,000	3.7%	n/a	n/a	n/a
Bonnie Brook	$685,000	4%	3.1%	$500	0%
Deanside	$713,000	4.3%	4%	$500	-2%

DRAFT for James: 23 of 24 ladder suburbs sit at or under $900,000, in-band yield 4%, 1yr growth median 5% against a 5yr average of 4%, vacancy median 3.05%.

Open the Melton LGA report

Brimbank

VIC

six question
score / 10

$725,000 to $870,000

buy band

3.6%

yield in band

1.3%

vacancy

2,279

sales 12m

Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to April 2026

Budget fit4.8

Yield3.1

Timing6.6

Rentals7.9

Economy3.4

Depth5.1

The six questions, scored 0 to 10 against every tracked market. Longer bar = stronger on that question.

See the evidence behind each score

In-budget depth	Yield at band	Has the run happened	Vacancy	LGA economy	Market depth
14 of 18 suburbs at or under $900,000 Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to April 2026	3.6% median in-band house yield Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to April 2026	1yr median 8% 5yr average 4% Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to April 2026	1.3% median 17 suburbs with data Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to April 2026	GRP $12.86B unemployment 7% profitable sales: 96.3% Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to April 2026	19 suburbs 2,279 house sales, 12 months Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to April 2026

In-band suburbs (inside the buy band above). Suburbs with a full report link through.

In-band suburb	Median	Yield	Vacancy	Rent pw	Rent 12m
Delahey	$740,500	3.9%	1.6%	$500	2%
Sydenham	$750,500	3.6%	1.1%	$505	-1%
Sunshine North	$772,000	3.5%	1.3%	$530	2%
Albion	$790,500	3.3%	1.1%	$510	2%
Sunshine	$854,000	3.3%	1.8%	$520	4%

DRAFT for James: 14 of 18 ladder suburbs sit at or under $900,000, in-band yield 3.6%, 1yr growth median 8% against a 5yr average of 4%, vacancy median 1.3%.

Open the Brimbank LGA report

Frankston

VIC

six question
score / 10

$825,000 to $940,000

buy band

3.8499999999999996%

yield in band

0.9%

vacancy

2,394

sales 12m

Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to March 2026

Budget fit2.1

Yield4.1

Timing5.8

Rentals8.8

Economy4.6

Depth4.2

The six questions, scored 0 to 10 against every tracked market. Longer bar = stronger on that question.

See the evidence behind each score

In-budget depth	Yield at band	Has the run happened	Vacancy	LGA economy	Market depth
6 of 8 suburbs at or under $900,000 Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to March 2026	3.8499999999999996% median in-band house yield Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to March 2026	1yr median 7% 5yr average 6% Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to March 2026	0.9% median 8 suburbs with data Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to March 2026	GRP $10.095B unemployment 5.1% profitable sales: not captured for this LGA Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to March 2026	9 suburbs 2,394 house sales, 12 months Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to March 2026

In-band suburbs (inside the buy band above). Suburbs with a full report link through.

In-band suburb	Median	Yield	Vacancy	Rent pw	Rent 12m
Frankston	$838,000	3.8%	1.2%	$590	5%
Skye	$842,500	4%	2%	$659	5%
Langwarrin	$885,000	3.9%	0.8%	$650	8%
Seaford	$885,000	3.7%	0.9%	$600	3%

DRAFT for James: 6 of 8 ladder suburbs sit at or under $900,000, in-band yield 3.8499999999999996%, 1yr growth median 7% against a 5yr average of 6%, vacancy median 0.9%.

Open the Frankston LGA report

James Thompson
Licensed Buyers Agent
Rethink Residential
Reviewing strategist for the StratMap picks editions. This draft has not yet been reviewed.

Other editions: Top Picks · Cheapies with Prospects · Regional Victoria: Top 5 Markets · Queensland: Top Markets · Cheapies with Prospects: Regional Edition · Yield Leaders: The Cashflow Edition · Premium Markets: One Million Plus
Rather filter than read? Find your areas by your own numbers across every market these editions draw from.

Evidence: the Rethink Residential research compilation of licensed market data; periods as labelled per value.
This page ranks markets on stated evidence. It is research, not a recommendation to buy in any market or any suburb. The figures describe what the data shows for the periods stated; they are not forecasts or guarantees. Your accountant owns tax and structure, your broker owns lending and serviceability, and a licensed buyers agent owns property selection once a market is chosen.
StratMap Picks, 2026 Q3. Draft preview, not for distribution until reviewed.