StratMap Picks: Top Picks (2026 Q3 draft preview)

Draft picks awaiting James Thompson's review. Not published guidance. The ranking below is a machine pass over the evidence. James reviews, reorders, and writes the strategist view before an edition is published.

How to read this report. Each market card opens with its four headline numbers, then six score bars showing where it is strong and where it is not. The suburb table underneath is where you shortlist: every suburb links to its own report or preview, and every number states its source and period. Read one card or all of them; the ranking is the same disclosed math either way.

Every buy band on one line

Each bar is that market's middle-half price band. Click a bar to jump to its card.

#1Geelong

$700k to $840k

#2Logan City

$835k to $1.07m

#3Ipswich

$780k to $910k

#4Bendigo

$590k to $675k

#5Ballarat

$560k to $655k

#6Casey

$720k to $865k

#7Sunshine Coast

$1.06m to $1.55m

#8Moreton Bay

$915k to $1.1m

$560k$1.55m

How these were picked: the six questions and the scoring

Each market is scored on six questions. Every question is a number from the report grid; every value on this page carries its source and period underneath it.

How many suburbs a working budget reaches. We count ladder suburbs with a house median at or under $900,000, the budget band most of our clients buy in.
What yield the buy band pays. The median gross house yield across the middle of each ladder (the P25 to P75 price slice).
Whether the run has already happened. A low 5 year average with positive 1 year momentum scores higher than a big 5 year number that is already banked.
How tight rentals are. The median house vacancy rate across the ladder.
The shape of the local economy. Gross regional product and the unemployment rate.
How deep the market is. Suburb count and 12 month house sales volume.

Each question is scaled 0 to 1 across the 36-LGA corpus and the six scores are averaged with equal weight. The rank is that average, highest first. The profitable-sales figure is shown where captured but not scored, because only 8 of the 36 markets carry it.

This edition draws from the full tracked corpus.

Geelong

VIC

six question
score / 10

$700,000 to $840,000

buy band

3.8%

yield in band

1.45%

vacancy

5,978

sales 12m

Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026

Budget fit10

Yield3.9

Timing6.2

Rentals7.5

Economy5.8

Depth8.3

The six questions, scored 0 to 10 against every tracked market. Longer bar = stronger on that question.

See the evidence behind each score

In-budget depth	Yield at band	Has the run happened	Vacancy	LGA economy	Market depth
29 of 35 suburbs at or under $900,000 Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026	3.8% median in-band house yield Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026	1yr median 6% 5yr average 4% Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026	1.45% median 18 suburbs with data Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026	GRP not captured unemployment 4.5% profitable sales: not captured for this LGA Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026	35 suburbs 5,978 house sales, 12 months Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026

In-band suburbs (inside the buy band above). Suburbs with a full report link through.

In-band suburb	Median	Yield	Vacancy	Rent pw	Rent 12m
Indented Head	$702,500	3.6%	n/a	n/a	n/a
Bell Park	$711,500	3.8%	1.4%	$500	2%
Lara	$720,000	4.1%	2.8%	$580	4%
St Leonards	$736,000	3.8%	1.6%	$530	10%
Lovely Banks	$760,000	3.6%	n/a	n/a	n/a

DRAFT for James: 29 of 35 ladder suburbs sit at or under $900,000, in-band yield 3.8%, 1yr growth median 6% against a 5yr average of 4%, vacancy median 1.45%.

Open the Geelong LGA report

Logan City

QLD

six question
score / 10

$835,000 to $1,075,000

buy band

3.7%

yield in band

1.2%

vacancy

5,755

sales 12m

Rethink Residential research compilation, period not stated

Budget fit9

Yield3.5

Timing4.7

Rentals8.1

Economy5.9

Depth9.4

The six questions, scored 0 to 10 against every tracked market. Longer bar = stronger on that question.

See the evidence behind each score

In-budget depth	Yield at band	Has the run happened	Vacancy	LGA economy	Market depth
26 of 47 suburbs at or under $900,000 Rethink Residential research compilation, period not stated	3.7% median in-band house yield Rethink Residential research compilation, period not stated	1yr median 14% 5yr average 16% Rethink Residential research compilation, period not stated	1.2% median 20 suburbs with data Rethink Residential research compilation, period not stated	GRP $18.24B unemployment 4.3% profitable sales: not captured for this LGA Rethink Residential research compilation, period not stated	47 suburbs 5,755 house sales, 12 months Rethink Residential research compilation, period not stated

In-band suburbs (inside the buy band above). Suburbs with a full report link through.

In-band suburb	Median	Yield	Vacancy	Rent pw	Rent 12m
Bethania	$840,000	4%	n/a	n/a	n/a
Edens Landing	$862,500	3.7%	n/a	n/a	n/a
South Maclean	$880,000	3.7%	n/a	n/a	n/a
Bahrs Scrub	$920,000	3.8%	1.6%	n/a	n/a
Cedar Vale	$1,072,500	3.9%	n/a	n/a	n/a

DRAFT for James: 26 of 47 ladder suburbs sit at or under $900,000, in-band yield 3.7%, 1yr growth median 14% against a 5yr average of 16%, vacancy median 1.2%.

Open the Logan City LGA report

Ipswich

QLD

six question
score / 10

$780,000 to $910,000

buy band

3.6%

yield in band

vacancy

4,345

sales 12m

Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026

Budget fit9

Yield3.1

Timing5

Rentals8.6

Economy5.8

Depth7.8

The six questions, scored 0 to 10 against every tracked market. Longer bar = stronger on that question.

See the evidence behind each score

In-budget depth	Yield at band	Has the run happened	Vacancy	LGA economy	Market depth
26 of 35 suburbs at or under $900,000 Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026	3.6% median in-band house yield Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026	1yr median 18% 5yr average 18% Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026	1% median 23 suburbs with data Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026	GRP $16.81B unemployment 4.2% profitable sales: not captured for this LGA Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026	35 suburbs 4,345 house sales, 12 months Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026

In-band suburbs (inside the buy band above). Suburbs with a full report link through.

In-band suburb	Median	Yield	Vacancy	Rent pw	Rent 12m
Bundamba	$787,500	3.7%	0.8%	$580	5%
Sadliers Crossing	$815,000	3.5%	n/a	n/a	n/a
Raceview	$828,750	3.7%	0.7%	$600	9%
Redbank	$860,000	3.7%	n/a	n/a	n/a
Bellbird Park	$900,000	3.6%	1%	$650	5%

DRAFT for James: 26 of 35 ladder suburbs sit at or under $900,000, in-band yield 3.6%, 1yr growth median 18% against a 5yr average of 18%, vacancy median 1%.

Open the Ipswich LGA report

Bendigo

VIC

six question
score / 10

$590,000 to $675,000

buy band

4.3%

yield in band

1.6%

vacancy

2,387

sales 12m

Deep, diversifying economy (health care, education, defence manufacturing) with one of the widest entry bands on this list, real council and state infrastructure spend already underway, and yields still above 4.3% in-band.

Why Bendigo, in detail

Economy: Health care & social assistance is the largest employer (13,804 jobs). $750M Thales Bushmaster contract has run for 20+ years at the Bendigo site.
Jobs market: Unemployment 3.9%, between the regional Victorian average (3.7%) and the state average (4.5%).
Growth: Population 125,805 (2024), forecast to 172,239 by 2046.
Council spend: $97.1M in FY2026-27 capital works. Named projects underway: $45M Art Gallery redevelopment, $4.3M Heathcote Civic Precinct, $133M state GovHub, $63.5M Health Clinical Services Campus.
Transport: $176.2M Regional Rail Revival, shrinking the Melbourne commute.
Renter pool: 26.9% of the LGA rents, without diluting owner-occupier stability.
Watch: the Bushmaster order is fixed at 268 vehicles with no confirmed follow-on yet, a defined horizon, not an open one.

Population + forecast: ABS ERP 30 Jun 2024, .id National Forecasting Program Sep 2024. Employment + unemployment: REMPLAN, economy.id.com.au (ABS Labour Force Survey). Defence contract: Australian Government Dept of Defence, "Securing advanced manufacturing in Bendigo with new Bushmasters" (27 Apr 2026). Tenure: ABS 2021 Census QuickStats LGA22620. Council capital works: City of Greater Bendigo FY2026-27 budget. Full citation trail in the Bendigo LGA report.

Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026

The six questions, scored 0 to 10 against every tracked market.

See the evidence behind each score

In-budget depth	Yield at band	Has the run happened	Vacancy	LGA economy	Market depth
24 of 25 suburbs at or under $900,000 Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026	4.3% median in-band house yield Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026	1yr median 10% 5yr average 7% Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026	1.6% median 22 suburbs with data Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026	GRP $10.96B unemployment 3.9% profitable sales: not captured for this LGA Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026	25 suburbs 2,387 house sales, 12 months Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to June 2026

In-band suburbs (inside the buy band above). Suburbs with a full report link through.

In-band suburb	Median	Yield	Vacancy	Rent pw	Rent 12m
Kangaroo Flat	$591,500	4.4%	0.8%	$530	10%
Flora Hill	$613,750	4.3%	1.6%	$490	4%
Bagshot	$635,000	4.1%	n/a	n/a	n/a
Huntly	$640,500	4.3%	2.7%	$530	2%
Epsom	$658,750	4.3%	1.1%	$570	7%

DRAFT for James: 24 of 25 ladder suburbs sit at or under $900,000, in-band yield 4.3%, 1yr growth median 10% against a 5yr average of 7%, vacancy median 1.6%.

Open the Bendigo LGA report

Ballarat

VIC

six question
score / 10

$560,000 to $655,000

buy band

3.8%

yield in band

1.25%

vacancy

3,324

sales 12m

Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to July 2026

Budget fit8.3

Yield3.9

Timing6.4

Rentals8

Economy4

Depth6.3

The six questions, scored 0 to 10 against every tracked market. Longer bar = stronger on that question.

See the evidence behind each score

In-budget depth	Yield at band	Has the run happened	Vacancy	LGA economy	Market depth
24 of 25 suburbs at or under $900,000 Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to July 2026	3.8% median in-band house yield Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to July 2026	1yr median 7% 5yr average 4% Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to July 2026	1.25% median 20 suburbs with data Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to July 2026	GRP $8.14B unemployment not captured profitable sales: not captured for this LGA Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to July 2026	25 suburbs 3,324 house sales, 12 months Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to July 2026

In-band suburbs (inside the buy band above). Suburbs with a full report link through.

In-band suburb	Median	Yield	Vacancy	Rent pw	Rent 12m
Canadian	$560,000	3.8%	1%	$430	2%
Delacombe	$600,000	4%	1.3%	$440	5%
Bonshaw	$605,500	4%	2.7%	$470	4%
Brown Hill	$640,000	3.8%	n/a	n/a	n/a
Alfredton	$655,000	3.8%	1.4%	$480	7%

DRAFT for James: 24 of 25 ladder suburbs sit at or under $900,000, in-band yield 3.8%, 1yr growth median 7% against a 5yr average of 4%, vacancy median 1.25%.

Open the Ballarat LGA report

Casey

VIC

six question
score / 10

$720,000 to $865,000

buy band

3.9%

yield in band

1.4%

vacancy

6,734

sales 12m

Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to April 2026

Budget fit5.5

Yield4.3

Timing5.9

Rentals7.7

Economy5.2

Depth6.9

The six questions, scored 0 to 10 against every tracked market. Longer bar = stronger on that question.

See the evidence behind each score

In-budget depth	Yield at band	Has the run happened	Vacancy	LGA economy	Market depth
16 of 20 suburbs at or under $900,000 Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to April 2026	3.9% median in-band house yield Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to April 2026	1yr median 6% 5yr average 5% Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to April 2026	1.4% median 18 suburbs with data Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to April 2026	GRP $14.75B unemployment not captured profitable sales: not captured for this LGA Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to April 2026	20 suburbs 6,734 house sales, 12 months Rethink Residential research compilation, 12 months to April 2026

In-band suburbs (inside the buy band above). Suburbs with a full report link through.

In-band suburb	Median	Yield	Vacancy	Rent pw	Rent 12m
Cranbourne West	$722,500	4.1%	1.5%	$580	2%
Cranbourne East	$745,000	4%	1.1%	$590	2%
Cranbourne North	$770,000	3.9%	1.4%	$590	2%
Cranbourne South	$810,000	3.6%	1.9%	$635	3%
Narre Warren South	$860,000	3.8%	1%	$620	3%

DRAFT for James: 16 of 20 ladder suburbs sit at or under $900,000, in-band yield 3.9%, 1yr growth median 6% against a 5yr average of 5%, vacancy median 1.4%.

Open the Casey LGA report

Sunshine Coast

QLD

six question
score / 10

$1,060,000 to $1,550,000

buy band

3.6%

yield in band

0.8%

vacancy

5,732

sales 12m

Rethink Residential research compilation, period not stated

Budget fit0.7

Yield3.1

Timing4.7

Rentals9.1

Economy7.1

Depth9.8

The six questions, scored 0 to 10 against every tracked market. Longer bar = stronger on that question.

See the evidence behind each score

In-budget depth	Yield at band	Has the run happened	Vacancy	LGA economy	Market depth
2 of 50 suburbs at or under $900,000 Rethink Residential research compilation, period not stated	3.6% median in-band house yield Rethink Residential research compilation, period not stated	1yr median 10.5% 5yr average 13% Rethink Residential research compilation, period not stated	0.8% median 17 suburbs with data Rethink Residential research compilation, period not stated	GRP $30B unemployment 3.4% profitable sales: not captured for this LGA Rethink Residential research compilation, period not stated	50 suburbs 5,732 house sales, 12 months Rethink Residential research compilation, period not stated

In-band suburbs (inside the buy band above). Suburbs with a full report link through.

In-band suburb	Median	Yield	Vacancy	Rent pw	Rent 12m
Yandina	$1,060,000	4.3%	n/a	n/a	n/a
Currimundi	$1,147,500	3.8%	n/a	n/a	n/a
Tewantin	$1,222,500	3.8%	0.6%	n/a	n/a
Buderim	$1,375,000	3.5%	0.8%	n/a	n/a
Parrearra	$1,550,000	3.5%	n/a	n/a	n/a

DRAFT for James: 2 of 50 ladder suburbs sit at or under $900,000, in-band yield 3.6%, 1yr growth median 10.5% against a 5yr average of 13%, vacancy median 0.8%.

Open the Sunshine Coast LGA report

Moreton Bay

QLD

six question
score / 10

$915,000 to $1,100,000

buy band

3.5%

yield in band

0.7%

vacancy

6,385

sales 12m

Rethink Residential research compilation, period not stated

Budget fit2.8

Yield2.8

Timing5.2

Rentals9.3

Economy5.9

Depth8.2

The six questions, scored 0 to 10 against every tracked market. Longer bar = stronger on that question.

See the evidence behind each score

In-budget depth	Yield at band	Has the run happened	Vacancy	LGA economy	Market depth
8 of 33 suburbs at or under $900,000 Rethink Residential research compilation, period not stated	3.5% median in-band house yield Rethink Residential research compilation, period not stated	1yr median 14% 5yr average 14% Rethink Residential research compilation, period not stated	0.7% median 23 suburbs with data Rethink Residential research compilation, period not stated	GRP $26.527B unemployment 4.8% profitable sales: 99.9% Rethink Residential research compilation, period not stated	33 suburbs 6,385 house sales, 12 months Rethink Residential research compilation, period not stated

In-band suburbs (inside the buy band above). Suburbs with a full report link through.

In-band suburb	Median	Yield	Vacancy	Rent pw	Rent 12m
Bray Park	$916,000	3.5%	1.1%	n/a	n/a
Ningi	$944,000	3.7%	n/a	n/a	n/a
Clontarf	$960,000	3.5%	0.5%	n/a	n/a
Burpengary East	$1,030,000	3.6%	1.7%	n/a	n/a
Woody Point	$1,100,000	3.1%	n/a	n/a	n/a

DRAFT for James: 8 of 33 ladder suburbs sit at or under $900,000, in-band yield 3.5%, 1yr growth median 14% against a 5yr average of 14%, vacancy median 0.7%.

Open the Moreton Bay LGA report

James Thompson
Licensed Buyers Agent
Rethink Residential
Reviewing strategist for the StratMap picks editions. This draft has not yet been reviewed.

Other editions: Cheapies with Prospects · Melbourne Metro: Top 5 Markets · Regional Victoria: Top 5 Markets · Queensland: Top Markets · Cheapies with Prospects: Regional Edition · Yield Leaders: The Cashflow Edition · Premium Markets: One Million Plus
Rather filter than read? Find your areas by your own numbers across every market these editions draw from.

Evidence: the Rethink Residential research compilation of licensed market data; periods as labelled per value.
This page ranks markets on stated evidence. It is research, not a recommendation to buy in any market or any suburb. The figures describe what the data shows for the periods stated; they are not forecasts or guarantees. Your accountant owns tax and structure, your broker owns lending and serviceability, and a licensed buyers agent owns property selection once a market is chosen.
StratMap Picks, 2026 Q3. Draft preview, not for distribution until reviewed.